一.Theka lachiwiri la kulosera kofunikira

1.1 Zoneneratu Zopanga

Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Longzhong Information, makampani opanga zinthu za aniline akukonzekera kupanga matani 385,000 a mphamvu zopanga mu theka lachiwiri la 2023, ndipo palibe dongosolo lochotsa. Kuthekera kwatsopano kumeneku kumagawidwa makamaka ku South China, ndipo bizinesi yomwe ikufunsidwayo ili ndi zida zotsika mtengo, kukula kwa unyolo wamafakitale, kuchepetsa zogula ndi zoyendera ndi ndalama zina zogwirira ntchito.

Pambuyo kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu zatsopano za kupanga aniline m'tsogolomu, zidzasintha kwambiri machitidwe amtundu wamtundu wa aniline, ndipo kupanga aniline ku South China kudzawonekera ku mafakitale ozungulira kumtsinje pafupi ndi mtunda wapafupi, kuchepetsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali wogula zinthu. . Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, Yantai Wanhua adakonzekera kukonzanso, ndipo zida zake zonse za aniline-MDI zinayima, kapena zinakhudza kupereka kwa aniline kwa makasitomala ake aatali. Komanso, Fujian Wanhua akukonzekera kuyika kupanga mu September, zomwe zimakhudza kwambiri mtengo wa aniline kum'mwera, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wa aniline mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ukhoza kukhala 9000-12000 yuan / tani

1.2 Zoneneratu za Kagwiritsidwe

Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, zoweta polymerization MDI yokonza zipangizo anaikira mu August, November ndi December, chipangizo chonse chikuyembekezeka kuchepa kwambiri, kuwonjezera zipangizo kunja mu July ndi August pali angapo akanema kukonza chipangizo, ndi wonse. kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono, zoweta zonse mtengo akhoza kukhala ndi mphamvu yaing'ono, koma mu August ndi September chifukwa cha kufika kwa chilimwe, kutentha kwa nyengo kungakhudze kutsika kwa katundu, kuchepetsa mphamvu, kupanga zochepa. Komanso makampani opanga zida zam'nyumba munyengo yanthawi yayitali, mtengo wake ndi wovuta kuthandizira. M'mwezi wa Okutobala ndi Novembala, ndi zida zam'nyumba zotsika komanso mafakitale apaipi amalowa m'nyengo yachikale, komanso kukonza bwino kwa zida zina kumayembekezeredwa, ndizotheka kupitiliza kukwera. Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, cholinga chachikulu ndicho kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono komanso kutsata mbali zofunidwa. Poganizira kuti mtengo wa polymerized MDI mu theka loyamba la chaka umasungidwa pa 14300-16300 yuan/tani, kufunika kukuyembekezeka kuchira mchaka, mtengo wapakati mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ndi wokwera pang'ono kuposa mlingo. mu theka loyamba la chaka, ndipo mtengo woyembekezeredwa umasungidwa pa 15500-17000 yuan / tani.

1.3 Zoneneratu za kulowetsedwa kwa Net/Net

Pakali pano, kupezeka ndi kufunidwa kwa aniline m'nyumba sikuli bwino, ndipo chidwi chogulitsa kunja chikuchepa. Ngakhale kuchepetsedwa kwa mtengo wamtundu wa aniline wapakhomo, kufunikira kwapansi pamtsinje kumakhala kolimba, komwe kuli ndi chithandizo china pamtengo wokwera wa aniline. Zikuyembekezeka kuti kuchuluka kwa malonda a aniline mu theka lachiwiri la chaka sikudzasintha kwambiri poyerekeza ndi theka loyamba la chaka, koma sizikunenedwa kuti owonjezera aniline adzagulitsidwa kunja Fujian Wanhua atayamba kugwira ntchito. .

1.4 Zoneneratu za kubweza ndi kufunikira

二.Mtengo wa theka lachiwiri la zoneneratu

Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, mtengo wolosera wa benzene yoyera ndi 6280-6800 yuan/ton, kusonyeza kukwera koyamba kenako kutsika.

Pankhani ya mafuta osakanizika, mitengo yamafuta mu theka lachiwiri la chaka yakhala ndi mwayi wobwereranso, kuwonetsa kukwera koyamba kenako kutsikanso, ndipo mtengo wapakati pamwezi ukhoza kusinthasintha pakati pa 75-78 US. madola / mbiya, yokhala ndi kusinthasintha kwakung'ono.

Pankhani ya kupezeka, kukulitsa kwakukulu kwa benzene mu 2023 kwatha mu theka loyamba la chaka, ndi matani opitilira 3 miliyoni amafuta atsopano a petroleum benzene ndi hydrobenzene akugwiritsidwa ntchito, komanso benzene yoyera. kupanga mu theka lachiwiri la chaka kukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kuchuluka kwakukulu poyerekeza ndi theka loyamba la chaka. Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, matani a 100,000 okha a Anqing Petrochemical mphamvu adakulitsidwa mu July, ndipo matani 200,000 a Longjiang Chemical adamangidwa kumene kumapeto kwa chaka. Komabe, a hydzene ojambulidwa ndi puyang zhonghui matani 500,000, chongqing Huaten matani 200,000, matani ena a matani 200,000, matani ena a mboni zatsopano za zana la 200,000 kotala.

Pankhani yofunidwa, kupanga kumunsi kwa benzene koyera mu theka lachiwiri la chaka kunakhazikika, kuphatikiza seti yachinayi ya styrene ya Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene ya Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli phenol yatsopano ndi adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan. , Baling Petrochemical caprolactam latsopano ndi zipangizo zina anakonza kuyika ntchito, ndi Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, amene anaimitsidwa mu theka loyamba la chaka. Kuphatikiza pa kutsika kwachikhalidwe, kufunikira kwa octane kuchokera ku ethylbenzene ndi cyclohexane kukuyembekezeka kulimbikitsa kumwa benzene koyera. Komabe, mu theka loyamba la chaka, mitundu ya kunsi kwa mtsinje nthawi zambiri idatsika m'mafakitale atakula, ndipo kumwa kwa benzene koyera kunali kocheperako kuposa momwe amapangira. Pankhani ya kugwiritsidwa ntchito komaliza mu theka lachiwiri la chaka sikukhalabe ndi chiyembekezo, zikuyembekezeka kuti kumwa kwa benzene koyera kusinthidwa kwambiri kutsika kuposa mtengo wongoyerekeza.

Pankhani ya zolowa kunja, kufunikira kopitilira muyeso ku United States ndi ku Europe kukupitilirabe kukhumudwa, ndipo chiwopsezo chaulendo wachilimwe ku United States mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chidzatha mu Seputembala, kufunitsitsa kwa Northeast Asia kutumiza benzene yoyera ku China. akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, ndipo voliyumu yoitanitsa ikhoza kubwereranso ku mlingo wa matani 250-300,000 / mwezi.

Ponseponse, mtengo wamafuta opanda mafuta mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ndi wokhazikika, ndipo kuthandizira kwamtengo kumaphatikizidwa. The kunsi mtsinje ongolankhula kupanga chipangizo kuposa unsembe watsopano wa petroleum benzene ndi hydrobenzene, koma mlingo kwenikweni ntchito akuyembekezeka kuchepa lonse, ndipo voliyumu kuitanitsa akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka, kotero kotunga ndi kufunika mbali ya benzene koyera bwino, koma osiyanasiyana ndi ochepa. Mtengo wa benzene koyera ukuyembekezeka m'gawo lachitatu chifukwa chobwerera kumtunda kwa zida zokonzera ndikumanga zida zatsopano kuti mtengo ukwere mphamvu, koma chifukwa cha phindu lofooka lopanda kuphatikizira, benzene yoyera idakwera pamwamba. otsika, ndi kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu yopanga hydrobenzene mgawo lachinayi, mbali yoperekera ndi kufunikira idasinthidwanso kukhala yochulukirapo, ndiye kuti mtengo ukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kutsika.

Mu gawo lachiwiri, aniline adakhudzidwa ndi kufunikira kofooka ndipo adayamba kulowa munjira yotsika. Kutengera kukonzanso kokonzekera kwa Yantai Wanhua mu Ogasiti, ngati ndondomeko yokonzanso ikukwaniritsidwa monga momwe idakonzedwera, ikhoza kukoka msika wa aniline. Komabe, mu Seputembala, mayunitsi a Fujian Wanhua ndi Chongqing Changfeng 2 adayikidwa, ndipo kuperekedwa kwa aniline ku South China ndi Kumwera chakumadzulo kwa China kudakula kwambiri, kukulitsa magwero ogula ozungulira akumunsi. Ponseponse, gawo lachiwiri ndi gawo lachitatu la msika wa aniline ndi lofooka, koma mu gawo lachinayi, ena akutsika adayamba kulandira madongosolo a chaka chamawa, kufunikira kwa zinthu zopangira kukukulirakulira, kotala lachinayi lamitengo ya aniline ikuyembekezeka kubweza. poyerekeza ndi gawo lachitatu.