一. Gawo lachiwiri la kuneneratu koyambirira

1.1 Kuneneratu za Kupanga

Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Longzhong Information, makampani opanga zinthu za aniline akukonzekera kupanga matani 385,000 a mphamvu zopangira mu theka lachiwiri la 2023, ndipo palibe dongosolo la mphamvu zochotsera. Mphamvu yatsopano yopangira zinthu ikugawidwa makamaka ku South China, ndipo bizinesi yomwe ikuperekedwayi ili ndi zida zotsatizana ndi zinthu, kukula kwa unyolo wa mafakitale, komanso kuchepetsa kugula ndi mayendedwe ndi ndalama zina zogwirira ntchito.

Pambuyo potulutsa mphamvu zatsopano zopangira aniline mtsogolomu, izi zisintha kwambiri momwe aniline imagwirira ntchito m'dziko muno, ndipo kupanga aniline ku South China kudzafalikira ku mafakitale ozungulira omwe ali pafupi, zomwe zimachepetsa mtengo wogula zinthu zopangira pansi. Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, Yantai Wanhua idakonza zokonzanso, ndipo zida zake zonse za aniline-MDI zidayima, kapena kukhudza kuperekedwa kwa aniline kwa makasitomala ake ena a nthawi yayitali. Kuphatikiza apo, Fujian Wanhua ikukonzekera kupanga mu Seputembala, zomwe zimakhudza kwambiri mtengo wa aniline kum'mwera, ndipo akuyembekezeka kuti mtengo wa aniline mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ukhoza kukhala 9000-12000 yuan/tani.

1.2 Kuneneratu za Kugwiritsa Ntchito

Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, zida zokonzera za MDI zopopera zapakhomo zimayikidwa mu Ogasiti, Novembala ndi Disembala, chipangizo chonse chikuyembekezeka kuchepa kwambiri, kuwonjezera pa zida zakunja mu Julayi ndi Ogasiti pali magulu angapo okonza zida, kuchepa kwa zinthu zonse, mtengo wonse wapakhomo ukhoza kukwera pang'ono, koma mu Ogasiti ndi Seputembala chifukwa cha kufika kwa chilimwe, nyengo yotentha kwambiri ingakhudze katundu wonse wotsika, kuchepetsa mphamvu, komanso kupanga kochepa. Kuphatikiza pa makampani opanga zida zapakhomo omwe akuyamba nyengo yopuma, mtengo wake ndi wovuta kuthandizira. Mu Okutobala ndi Novembala, ndi mafakitale a zida zapakhomo ndi mapaipi omwe akuyamba nyengo yachikhalidwe, ndipo kukonza bwino zida zina kukuyembekezeka, n'zotheka kupitiliza kukwera. Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, cholinga chachikulu ndi kuchepetsa kupezeka ndi kutsata mbali yofunikira. Poganizira kuti mtengo wa polymerized MDI mu theka loyamba la chaka umasungidwa pa 14300-16300 yuan/tani, kufunikira kukuyembekezeka kubwereranso m'chaka, mtengo wapakati mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ndi wokwera pang'ono kuposa mulingo mu theka loyamba la chaka, ndipo mtengo woyembekezeredwa umasungidwa pa 15500-17000 yuan/tani.

1.3 Kuneneratu za kutumiza/kutumiza kunja konse

Pakadali pano, kuchuluka kwa aniline komwe kumapezeka m'dziko muno kuli koyenera, ndipo chidwi cha kutumiza kunja chikuchepa. Ngakhale kuti ndalama zopangira aniline m'dziko muno zikuchepa, kufunikira kwa aniline komwe kukubwera pansi pa nthaka kuli kolimba, komwe kumathandizira kuti mtengo wa aniline ukhale wokwera. Zikuyembekezeka kuti kuchuluka kwa aniline yomwe imatumizidwa kunja mu theka lachiwiri la chaka sichidzasintha kwambiri poyerekeza ndi theka loyamba la chaka, koma sizikudziwika kuti aniline yotsalayo idzagulitsidwa kunja kwa dziko Fujian Wanhua ikayamba kugwira ntchito.

1.4 Kuneneratu za kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo komanso kuchuluka kwa zomwe zikufunidwa

Mtengo wa theka lachiwiri la zomwe zanenedweratu

Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, mtengo woyembekezeredwa wa benzene yoyera ndi 6280-6800 yuan/tani, zomwe zikusonyeza kuti mtengowo ukuyamba kukwera kenako n’kutsika.

Ponena za mafuta osakonzedwa, mitengo ya mafuta m'gawo lachiwiri la chaka yakhala ikukwera kwambiri, kusonyeza kuti ikukwera koyamba kenako nkutsikanso kwathunthu, ndipo mtengo wapakati pamwezi ukhoza kusinthasintha pakati pa madola 75-78 aku US pa mbiya, ndi kusinthasintha pang'ono.

Ponena za kupezeka kwa mafuta, kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa ntchito yofukula benzene yoyera mu 2023 kwatha mu theka loyamba la chaka, ndipo matani atsopano opitilira 3 miliyoni a benzene ndi hydrobenzene akuyamba kugwira ntchito, ndipo kupanga benzene yoyera mu theka lachiwiri la chaka kukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kuwonjezeka kwakukulu poyerekeza ndi theka loyamba la chaka. Mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, matani 100,000 okha a mphamvu ya Anqing Petrochemical adakulitsidwa mu Julayi, ndipo matani 200,000 a Longjiang Chemical adamangidwa kumene kumapeto kwa chaka. Komabe, benzene yokhala ndi hydrogenated ikadali ndi Puyang Zhonghui matani 500,000, Chongqing Huafeng matani 200,000, Ningxia Tongde Love matani 100,000, Zaozhuang Zhenxing matani 200,000, Henan Jinyuan Phase II matani 200,000 ndi matani ena 1.2 miliyoni a zida zatsopano zomwe zikukonzekera kupangidwa mu kotala lachinayi.

Ponena za kufunikira, kupanga kwa benzene yoyera kumapeto kwa chaka kunakulitsidwa kwambiri, kuphatikizapo seti yachinayi ya styrene ya Zhejiang Petrochemical, styrene ya Anqing Petrochemical, Hengli new phenol ndi adipic acid, Fujian Wanhua aniline, Lusi, Shenyuan, Baling Petrochemical new caprolactam ndi zida zina zomwe zikukonzekera kugwiritsidwa ntchito, ndi Qingdao Bay, Huizhou Zhongxin Phenol, yomwe idayimitsidwa kumapeto kwa chaka. Kuphatikiza pa kufunikira kwachikhalidwe, kufunikira kwa octane kuchokera ku ethylbenzene ndi cyclohexane kukuyembekezeka kupereka mphamvu pakugwiritsa ntchito benzene yoyera. Komabe, m'gawo loyamba la chaka, mitundu yoyera kumapeto kwa chaka nthawi zambiri idakumana ndi kuchepa kwa katundu wamakampani pambuyo pakukula kwa mphamvu, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito benzene yoyera kunali kotsika kuposa mphamvu zopangira. Ponena za kugwiritsidwa ntchito komaliza mu theka lachiwiri la chaka sikuli bwino, akuyembekezeka kuti kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa benzene yoyera kudzasinthidwa kwambiri kuposa mtengo wongopeka.

Ponena za kutumiza kunja, kufunikira kwa zinthu zomaliza ku United States ndi Europe kukupitirirabe kuchepa, ndipo chiwongola dzanja cha maulendo achilimwe ku United States mu theka lachiwiri la chaka chidzatha mu Seputembala, kufunitsitsa kwa Northeast Asia kutumiza benzene yoyera ku China kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka mu theka lachiwiri la chaka, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zinthu zotumizira kunja kungabwerere pamlingo wa matani 250-300,000 pamwezi.

Ponseponse, mtengo wa mafuta osakonzedwa mu theka lachiwiri la chaka ndi wokhazikika, ndipo chithandizo cha mtengo chikugwirizana. Chipangizo chopangira mafuta osakonzedwa bwino chimaposa kuyika kwatsopano kwa benzene ya petroleum ndi hydrobenzene, koma kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa ntchito kukuyembekezeka kuchepa konse, ndipo kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukwera, kotero mbali yoperekera ndi kufunikira kwa benzene yoyera yakwera, koma kuchuluka kwake ndi kochepa. Mtengo wa benzene yoyera ukuyembekezeka mu kotala lachitatu chifukwa cha kubwerera kwa zida zokonzera zinthu zotsika komanso kumanga zida zatsopano kuti mitengo ikwere, koma chifukwa cha phindu lofooka losaphatikizana, benzene yoyera idakwera pamwamba pa otsika, ndi kutulutsa mphamvu zopangira hydrobenzene mu kotala lachinayi, mbali yoperekera ndi kufunikira idasandukanso yochuluka, ndiye kuti mtengo ukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kutsika.

Mu kotala lachiwiri, aniline idakhudzidwa ndi kufunikira kochepa ndipo idayamba kulowa mu njira yotsika. Kutengera ndi kukonzanso komwe kukukonzekera kwa Yantai Wanhua mu Ogasiti, ngati dongosolo lokonzanso litakwaniritsidwa monga momwe linakonzedwera, lingathe kukoka msika wa aniline. Komabe, mu Seputembala, mayunitsi a Fujian Wanhua ndi Chongqing Changfeng 2 adayikidwa, ndipo kupezeka kwa aniline ku South China ndi Southwest China kudakwera kwambiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti magwero ogulira apansi achuluke. Ponseponse, kotala lachiwiri ndi kotala lachitatu la msika wa aniline zidafooka, koma mu kotala lachinayi, ena omwe ali pansi adayamba kulandira maoda a chaka chamawa, kufunikira kwa zinthu zopangira kuli ndi kukwera kwina, kotala lachinayi la mitengo ya aniline ikuyembekezeka kubwereranso poyerekeza ndi kotala lachitatu.