Kodi msika wa feteleza udzakhala wabwino mu 2024? Kodi msika udzasintha? Zotsatirazi ndikuwunika mozama za tsogolo la feteleza wapawiri malinga ndi momwe chilengedwe chikuyendera, ndondomeko, kaperekedwe ndi kafunidwe, mtengo ndi phindu, komanso kuwunika momwe zinthu zilili pamakampani.

1. Kusintha kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kukucheperachepera, ndipo chuma cha China chikukumana ndi mwayi ndi zovuta

Chifukwa cha ziwopsezo zingapo monga unilateralism, geopolitics, mikangano yankhondo, kukwera kwamitengo, ngongole zapadziko lonse lapansi ndikusinthanso kwa mafakitale, kukula kwa malonda ndi ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi kwatsika kwambiri, ndipo kuyambiranso kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi mu 2024 kukucheperachepera komanso kosagwirizana, komanso kusatsimikizika. zikuchulukirachulukira.

Nthawi yomweyo, chuma cha China chidzakumana ndi mwayi ndi zovuta zambiri. Mwayi waukulu wagona pakulimbikitsa mosalekeza za "zomangamanga zatsopano" ndi njira za "double cycle". Ndondomeko ziwirizi zilimbikitsa mwamphamvu kukweza kwa mafakitale apakhomo komanso kupititsa patsogolo mphamvu yazachuma yazachuma. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, chikhalidwe cha padziko lonse cha chitetezo cha malonda chikupitirirabe, zomwe zimabweretsa mavuto aakulu pa malonda a China.

Malinga ndi zomwe zanenedweratu zachilengedwe, kuthekera kwachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi kufooka mchaka chamawa ndikwambiri, ndipo zinthu zitha kugwedezeka pang'ono, komabe ndikofunikira kulingalira za kusatsimikizika komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kutsutsana kwapadziko lonse lapansi pamsika. Malo abwino apakhomo akuyembekezeka kupangitsa kuti mitengo ya feteleza m'nyumba ibwerere ku kusinthasintha kwa malo.

2, zinthu za feteleza zili ndi mphamvu, ndipo ndondomeko zimatsogolera chitukuko cha mafakitale

Unduna wa Zaulimi ndi Zakumidzi udapereka chidziwitso cha "ndondomeko yochepetsera feteleza wamankhwala pofika chaka cha 2025", chofuna kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, kugwiritsa ntchito feteleza wamankhwala m'dziko lonselo kukhale kutsika kokhazikika komanso kokhazikika. Ntchito yeniyeni ndi yakuti: pofika chaka cha 2025, gawo la malo ogwiritsira ntchito fetereza lidzawonjezeka ndi 5 peresenti, chiwerengero cha kuyesa nthaka ndi ukadaulo wa feteleza wa mbewu zazikulu mdziko muno chidzakhala chokhazikika kuposa 90%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka feteleza pazakudya zazikulu zitatu m’dziko muno kudzafika pa 43%. Pa nthawi yomweyo, malinga ndi "khumi ndi chinayi Plan zaka zisanu" chitukuko Malingaliro a phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, pawiri fetereza makampani akupitiriza kutenga chitukuko chobiriwira, kusinthika ndi kukweza, khalidwe ndi bwino patsogolo monga cholinga chonse, ndi pawiri mtengo udzawonjezedwanso.

Pansi pa "kulamulira kawiri kwa mphamvu", "awiri-carbon muyezo", chitetezo cha chakudya, ndi feteleza "khola chokhazikika ndi mtengo", kuchokera kumalingaliro a chitukuko cha mafakitale, tsogolo la feteleza pawiri liyenera kupitiriza kukonza ndondomekoyi. ndi kukonza njira zopangira kuti apulumutse mphamvu ndi kuchepetsa mpweya; Ponena za mitundu, ndikofunikira kupanga feteleza wapamwamba kwambiri yemwe amakwaniritsa zofunikira zaulimi wabwino; Pogwiritsira ntchito feteleza, ndikofunikira kuyang'anira kuchuluka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka feteleza.

3. Padzakhala zowawa popereka ndi kukhathamiritsa kofunikira

Kuchokera pamalingaliro a pulaniyo ndi kukhazikitsidwa komwe kukumangidwa, kuthamanga kwa masanjidwe a malo opanga mabizinesi akulu akulu sikunayime, ndipo njira yolumikizira yoyima ili ndi tanthauzo lalikulu pakuwonjezera phindu lamakampani opanga feteleza. , chifukwa kachitidwe kaphatikizidwe ka mafakitale, makamaka mabizinesi omwe ali ndi zabwino zothandizira ndi ntchito zazikulu azigwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri. Komabe, mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono, okwera mtengo komanso opanda zothandizira adzakumana ndi vuto lalikulu. Malinga ndi ziwerengero zosakwanira, mphamvu yopangira yomwe ikumangidwa mu 2024 ndi matani 4.3 miliyoni, ndipo kutulutsidwa kwa mphamvu yatsopano yopangira zinthu kumakhudzanso momwe zinthu ziliri m'nyumba komanso kufunikira kwa msika wa feteleza wapawiri, kuchuluka kwa kupanga, komanso mpikisano woyipa wamitengo ndizovuta kupewa kwakanthawi, ndikupanga kukakamiza kwina kwamitengo.

4. Mtengo wazinthu zopangira

Urea: Kuchokera kumbali yoperekera mu 2024, kupanga urea kupitilira kukula, ndipo kuchokera kumbali yofunidwa, mafakitale ndi ulimi ziwonetsa chiyembekezo chakukula, koma kutengera kuchuluka kwazinthu kumapeto kwa 2023, kupezeka kwapakhomo ndi kufunikira kwa 2024. kapena kuwonetsa njira yochepetsera pang'onopang'ono, ndipo kusintha kwa voliyumu yotumiza kunja chaka chamawa kudzapitilirabe kukhudza msika. Msika wa urea mu 2024 ukupitilizabe kusinthasintha, ndikuthekera kwakukulu kuti malo amphamvu yokoka atsika kuyambira 2023.

Feteleza wa Phosphate: Mu 2024, mtengo wapakhomo wa mono ammonium phosphate watsika. Ngakhale kutumizidwa kunja kuli kochepa mu kotala yoyamba, kufunikira kwa masika ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali kumathandizidwabe ndi mitengo yokwera, mtengo udzasinthasintha makamaka pa 2850-2950 yuan/ton; M'nyengo yopuma ya gawo lachiwiri, feteleza wa chilimwe amakhala ndi nayitrogeni wambiri, kufunikira kwa phosphorous kumakhala kochepa, ndipo mtengo wa mono-ammonium phosphate udzatsika pang'onopang'ono chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali; M'gawo lachitatu ndi lachinayi la nyengo yogulitsa m'dzinja, kufunikira kwa feteleza wapamwamba wa phosphorous kwa phosphorous ndi kwakukulu, ndipo kufunikira kwapadziko lonse kumalimbikitsidwa, komanso kutsatiridwa kwa kufunikira kosungirako nyengo yachisanu, ndi phosphate zopangira zopangira. Thandizo lamtengo wapatali, mtengo wa mono-ammonium phosphate udzabwereranso.

Feteleza wa Potaziyamu: Mu 2024, mtengo wamsika wa potashi wapakhomo udzasintha malinga ndi nyengo ya msika, motsogozedwa ndi kufunikira kwa msika wamasika, mtengo wamsika wa potaziyamu chloride ndi potaziyamu sulphate upitilira kukwera. , ndipo mgwirizano wa 2023 umatha pa Disembala 31, 2023, ndipo adzakumanabe ndi zokambirana za mgwirizano waukulu wa 2024. Ndizotheka kwambiri kuti zokambirana ziyambike kotala loyamba. Kumapeto kwa msika wamasika, msika wa potashi wakunyumba ulowa m'malo opepuka, ngakhale pakufunikabe misika yachilimwe ndi yophukira pambuyo pake, koma ndi ochepa potashi.

Poganizira zomwe zidachitika mu 2024, pali kuthekera kwakukulu kuti mtengo wapachaka wa 2023 utsike, ndiye kuti mtengo wa feteleza wophatikizika udzatsika, zomwe zimakhudza mtengo wa feteleza wapawiri.

5. Kufuna kwa mtsinje

Pakadali pano, kutengera mbewu yayikulu yakumunsi kwa mtsinje, ipitiliza kufunikira kuti mphamvu zake zonse zopanga zichuluke pang'onopang'ono mu 2024, ndipo zotulukapo zikhalabe pamwamba pa makate 1.3 thililiyoni, kuwonetsetsa kudzidalira kokwanira mumbewu komanso chitetezo chokwanira chazakudya. Pankhani ya njira yachitetezo cha chakudya, kufunikira kwaulimi kudzakhazikika ndikuyenda bwino, ndikupereka chithandizo chabwino pakufunika kwa feteleza wamba. Kuonjezera apo, poganizira za chitukuko cha ulimi wobiriwira, kusiyana kwa mtengo pakati pa feteleza watsopano ndi feteleza wamba kumayembekezereka kuwonjezereka, ndipo gawo la feteleza wamba lidzafinyidwa, koma zidzatenga nthawi kuti zisinthe. Chifukwa chake, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti kufunikira ndi kugwiritsa ntchito feteleza wapawiri sikusinthasintha kwambiri mu 2024.

6. Malingaliro amtengo wamsika

Kutengera kuwunika kwazomwe zili pamwambazi, ngakhale kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwakula, kupanikizika kopitilira muyeso kukadalipo, ndipo mtengo wazinthu zopangira ukhoza kumasulidwa, chifukwa chake msika wa feteleza wapawiri ukuyembekezeka kubwereranso bwino mu 2024, koma nthawi yomweyo. , msika wogawanika udakalipo, ndipo zotsatira za ndondomeko ziyenera kuganiziridwa. Kwa mabizinesi, kaya ndi kukonzekera kwazinthu zopangira nyengo isanakwane, mphamvu yopangira nthawi yomweyo yanthawi yapamwamba kwambiri, ntchito yamtundu, ndi zina zambiri, akukumana ndi mayeso.