Mavuto! Chenjezo lalikulu la mankhwala! Kuopa "kuchepetsa chiopsezo cha kupezeka"!

Posachedwapa, Covestro yalengeza kuti fakitale yake ya TDI yolemera matani 300,000 ku Germany inali ndi mphamvu yaikulu chifukwa cha kutuluka kwa chlorine ndipo sinathe kuyambiranso kwakanthawi kochepa. Ikuyembekezeka kuti idzayambiranso kupereka pambuyo pa Novembala 30.

BASF, yomwe ilinso ku Germany, idakumananso ndi fakitale ya TDI yolemera matani 300,000 yomwe idatsekedwa kuti ikonzedwe kumapeto kwa Epulo ndipo sinayambitsidwenso. Kuphatikiza apo, gawo la BC la Wanhua likukonzedwanso nthawi zonse. M'kanthawi kochepa, mphamvu zopangira TDI ku Europe, zomwe zimayimira pafupifupi 25% ya zonse padziko lonse lapansi, zili mumkhalidwe wopanda kanthu, ndipo kusalingana kwa zinthu ndi kufunikira kwa madera kukukulirakulira.

"Njira yothandiza" yopezera mayendedwe inatsekedwa, ndipo makampani akuluakulu angapo opanga mankhwala adapereka chenjezo ladzidzidzi

Mtsinje wa Rhine, womwe ungatchulidwe kuti "njira yothandiza" pa chuma cha ku Ulaya, watsika madzi chifukwa cha kutentha kwambiri, ndipo madera ena ofunikira a mitsinje akuyembekezeka kuti sadzayendamo kuyambira pa Ogasiti 12. Akatswiri a zanyengo akulosera kuti chilala chidzapitirira m'miyezi ikubwerayi, ndipo likulu la mafakitale ku Germany likhozanso kubwereza zolakwika zomwezo, zomwe zingakumane ndi zotsatirapo zoopsa kwambiri kuposa kulephera kwa Rhine mu 2018, zomwe zikuwonjezera vuto la mphamvu ku Europe pakadali pano.

Dera la Mtsinje wa Rhine ku Germany limafika pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a dziko la Germany, ndipo limadutsa m'madera ambiri ofunikira kwambiri a mafakitale ku Germany monga dera la Ruhr. Pafupifupi 10% ya mankhwala otumizidwa ku Europe amagwiritsa ntchito Rhine, kuphatikizapo zinthu zopangira, feteleza, zinthu zapakati ndi mankhwala omalizidwa. Rhine inali pafupifupi 28% ya mankhwala otumizidwa ku Germany mu 2019 ndi 2020, ndipo mafuta otumizidwa kuchokera ku makampani akuluakulu a mankhwala monga BASF, Covestro, LANXESS ndi Evonik amadalira kwambiri kutumiza m'mphepete mwa Rhine.

Pakadali pano, gasi wachilengedwe ndi malasha ku Europe ndi zovuta kwambiri, ndipo mwezi uno, chiletso cha EU pa malasha aku Russia chinayamba kugwira ntchito mwalamulo. Kuphatikiza apo, pali nkhani yoti EU ithananso ndi Gazprom. Nkhani yodabwitsa yomwe ikupitilirabe yamveka kumakampani opanga mankhwala padziko lonse lapansi. Monga chodzutsa chidwi, makampani ambiri opanga mankhwala monga BASF ndi Covestro apereka machenjezo oyambirira posachedwa.

Kampani yaikulu ya feteleza ku North America, Mosaic, inanena kuti ulimi wa mbewu padziko lonse lapansi ndi wochepa chifukwa cha zinthu zoipa monga mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, kutentha kwambiri ku Ulaya ndi United States, komanso zizindikiro za chilala kum'mwera kwa Brazil. Ponena za phosphates, Legg Mason akuyembekeza kuti ziletso zotumiza kunja m'maiko ena zitha kupititsidwa patsogolo chaka chonse mpaka chaka cha 2023.

Kampani yopanga mankhwala apadera ya Lanxess inati kuletsa mpweya kungakhale ndi "zotsatirapo zoopsa" pamakampani opanga mankhwala aku Germany, pomwe mafakitale omwe amagwiritsa ntchito mpweya wambiri amatseka kupanga pomwe ena amafunika kuchepetsa kutulutsa kwake.

Kampani yaikulu kwambiri yogawa mankhwala padziko lonse lapansi, Bruntage, inati kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi kuyika makampani opanga mankhwala ku Europe pamavuto. Popanda kupeza mphamvu yotsika mtengo, mpikisano wapakati mpaka wautali wa makampani opanga mankhwala ku Europe udzachepa.

Azelis, wogulitsa mankhwala apadera ku Belgium, adati pali mavuto omwe akupitilirabe pankhani yokhudza kayendetsedwe ka zinthu padziko lonse lapansi, makamaka kayendetsedwe ka katundu kuchokera ku China kupita ku Europe kapena ku America. Mphepete mwa nyanja ya US yakhala ikuvutika ndi kusowa kwa antchito, kuchepa kwa katundu wonyamula katundu komanso kusowa kwa oyendetsa magalimoto akuluakulu ku US ndi Europe komwe kukukhudza kutumiza katundu.

Covestro adachenjeza kuti kugawa gasi wachilengedwe chaka chamawa kungapangitse kuti malo opangira zinthu azigwira ntchito pa katundu wochepa kapena kutseka kwathunthu, kutengera kuchuluka kwa kuchepetsedwa kwa mpweya, zomwe zingayambitse Kugwa konse kwa unyolo wopanga ndi wopereka ndikuyika pachiwopsezo ntchito zikwizikwi.

BASF yakhala ikupereka machenjezo mobwerezabwereza kuti ngati mpweya wachilengedwe utsika ndi 50% ya kufunikira kwakukulu, iyenera kuchepetsa kapena kutseka kwathunthu malo opangira mankhwala ophatikizika kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, malo oyambira a ku Germany a Ludwigshafen.

Kampani yayikulu yamafuta ku Switzerland, INEOS, yati mtengo wa zipangizo zopangira ntchito zake ku Europe ndi wokwera kwambiri, ndipo mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine komanso ziletso zachuma zomwe zachitika motsutsana ndi Russia zabweretsa "mavuto akulu" pamitengo yamagetsi ndi chitetezo cha mphamvu m'makampani onse opanga mankhwala ku Europe.

Vuto la "khosi lomangika" likupitirirabe, ndipo kusintha kwa zokutira ndi unyolo wa makampani opanga mankhwala kukuyandikira

Makampani akuluakulu a mankhwala omwe ali kutali kwambiri akhala akuchenjeza kawirikawiri, zomwe zimayambitsa mphepo yamkuntho. Kwa makampani opanga mankhwala am'nyumba, chinthu chofunikira kwambiri ndi momwe zinthu zidzakhudzire unyolo wawo wa mafakitale. Dziko langa lili ndi mpikisano wamphamvu mu unyolo wa mafakitale otsika mtengo, koma lidakali lofooka muzinthu zapamwamba. Izi zikupezekanso mumakampani opanga mankhwala omwe alipo pano. Pakadali pano, pakati pa zinthu zofunika kwambiri zopangira mankhwala ku China zoposa 130, 32% ya mitunduyo ikadali yopanda kanthu, ndipo 52% ya mitunduyo imadalirabe zinthu zochokera kunja.

Mu gawo la pamwamba la zokutira, palinso zinthu zambiri zopangira zomwe zasankhidwa kuchokera kuzinthu zakunja. DSM mumakampani opanga epoxy resin, Mitsubishi ndi Mitsui mumakampani opanga zosungunulira; Digao ndi BASF mumakampani opanga defoamer; Sika ndi Valspar mumakampani opanga zotsukira; Digao ndi Dow mumakampani opanga zonyowetsa; WACKER ndi Degussa mumakampani opanga titanium dioxide; Chemours ndi Huntsman mumakampani opanga titanium dioxide; Bayer ndi Lanxess mumakampani opanga pigment.

Mitengo yamafuta ikukwera, kusowa kwa gasi wachilengedwe, chiletso cha malasha ku Russia, madzi ndi magetsi mwachangu, komanso tsopano mayendedwe atsekedwa, zomwe zimakhudzanso mwachindunji kupezeka kwa mankhwala ambiri apamwamba. Ngati zinthu zapamwamba zochokera kunja zikuletsedwa, ngakhale makampani onse opanga mankhwala sadzachepetsedwa, adzakhudzidwa mosiyanasiyana chifukwa cha kusintha kwa unyolo.

Ngakhale kuti pali opanga zinthu zapakhomo amtunduwu, zopinga zambiri zaukadaulo zapamwamba sizingathetsedwe kwakanthawi kochepa. Ngati makampani omwe ali mumakampaniwa akadali osatha kusintha malingaliro awo ndi njira yawo yopitira patsogolo, ndipo sakusamala kafukufuku wa sayansi ndi ukadaulo, chitukuko ndi zatsopano, vuto la "khosi lomangika" lidzapitirirabe kukhala ndi gawo, kenako lidzakhudzidwa ndi mphamvu iliyonse yakunja. Pamene chimphona cha mankhwala chomwe chili kutali kwambiri chikachita ngozi, n'zosatheka kuti mtima ukanda ndipo nkhawa idzakhala yachilendo.

Mitengo ya mafuta yabwerera pamlingo wa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo, kodi ndi yabwino kapena yoipa?

Kuyambira pachiyambi cha chaka chino, mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse lapansi ingathe kufotokozedwa ngati kusintha kwa nyengo. Pambuyo pa kukwera ndi kutsika kwa nyengo ziwiri zapitazi, mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse lapansi masiku ano yabwerera ku kusinthasintha kwa pafupifupi $90 pa mbiya isanafike Marichi chaka chino.

Malinga ndi akatswiri, kumbali imodzi, chiyembekezo cha kufooka kwachuma m'misika yakunja, pamodzi ndi kukula komwe kukuyembekezeka kwa mafuta osakonzedwa, zidzaletsa kukwera kwa mitengo yamafuta pamlingo winawake; kumbali ina, momwe zinthu zilili pano chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo kwapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikhale yabwino. Munthawi yovuta ngati imeneyi, mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi ili pamavuto.

Mabungwe ofufuza za msika adanenanso kuti vuto la kusowa kwa mafuta osakonzedwa likupitirirabe, ndipo thandizo lotsika la mitengo ya mafuta ndi lokhazikika. Komabe, ndi kupita patsogolo kwatsopano mu zokambirana za nyukiliya ku Iran, msika ulinso ndi ziyembekezo zochotsa chiletso cha mafuta osakonzedwa ku Iran pamsika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikwere kwambiri. Iran ndi imodzi mwa opanga mafuta ochepa pamsika womwe ungawonjezere kwambiri kupanga. Kupita patsogolo kwa mgwirizano wa nyukiliya ku Iran kwakhala kusintha kwakukulu pamsika wamafuta osakonzedwa posachedwapa.

Misika ikuyang'ana kwambiri pa zokambirana za mgwirizano wa nyukiliya ku Iran

Posachedwapa, nkhawa yokhudza kukula kwa chuma yaika pampani pa mitengo ya mafuta, koma kusakhazikika kwa kapangidwe ka mafuta kwakhala chinthu chothandizira mitengo ya mafuta, ndipo mitengo ya mafuta ikukumana ndi mavuto mbali zonse ziwiri za kukwera ndi kutsika. Komabe, zokambirana pa nkhani ya nyukiliya ya Iran zibweretsa zinthu zosiyanasiyana pamsika, kotero zakhalanso chidwi cha magulu onse.

Bungwe loona za katundu ku Longzhong Information linanena kuti zokambirana pa nkhani ya nyukiliya ya ku Iran ndi chochitika chofunikira kwambiri pamsika wa mafuta osakonzedwa posachedwa.

Ngakhale kuti EU yanena kuti ipitiliza kupititsa patsogolo zokambirana za nyukiliya ku Iran m'masabata angapo akubwerawa, ndipo Iran yanenanso kuti iyankha "mawu" omwe EU yapereka m'masiku ochepa akubwerawa, United States sinanene momveka bwino pankhaniyi, kotero pakadali kusatsimikizika za zotsatira zomaliza za zokambiranazo. Chifukwa chake, n'zovuta kuchotsa chiletso cha mafuta ku Iran usiku wonse.

Kusanthula kwa Huatai Futures kunasonyeza kuti pali kusiyana pakati pa United States ndi Iran pa mfundo zofunika kwambiri zokambirana, koma kuthekera kofika pa mgwirizano wanthawi yochepa chaka chisanathe sikunathetsedwe. Kukambirana za nyukiliya ku Iran ndi chimodzi mwa makadi ochepa a mphamvu omwe United States ingachite. Malingana ngati kukambirana za nyukiliya ku Iran n'kotheka, zotsatira zake pamsika zidzakhalapo nthawi zonse.

Huatai Futures yanena kuti Iran ndi imodzi mwa mayiko ochepa pamsika womwe ungawonjezere kwambiri kupanga, ndipo malo oyandama a mafuta aku Iran panyanja ndi pamtunda ndi pafupifupi migolo 50 miliyoni. Zilangozo zikachotsedwa, zidzakhudza kwambiri msika wamafuta wa nthawi yochepa.