Misika yaku Europe idakhalabe yokwera komanso yosasinthika sabata ino, ndipo momwe zinthu ziliri ku Middle East zidakakamiza Chevron kutseka gawo lake la gasi ku Syria, ndipo msika udapitilira kuchita mantha, koma mitengo yamtsogolo ya TTF inali yokwera komanso yosasinthika chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira pamsika.

Ku United States, chifukwa chakusowa kwaulesi komanso kuchepa kwa mantha, kugulitsa kunja kwa LNG ku United States kwatsika sabata ino, kutumiza kunja kwachepa, komanso kuperekedwa kwa gasi waiwisi kuchokera kumalo otumizira kunja kwachepa, koma chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mapangano amtsogolo a NG. mwezi uno, mtengo wa gasi wachilengedwe ku United States wakwera.

a) Chidule cha msika

Kuyambira pa October 24, United States Henry Port gasi (NG) mtengo wam'tsogolo unali 3.322 US dollars / miliyoni British thermal, poyerekeza ndi mkombero wapitawo (10.17) unawonjezeka ndi 0.243 US dollars / miliyoni British matenthedwe, kuwonjezeka kwa 7,89%; Mtengo wam'tsogolo wa gasi wachilengedwe waku Dutch (TTF) unali $15.304 / mmBTU, kukwera $0.114 / mmBTU kuchokera kumayendedwe am'mbuyomu (10.17), kapena 0.75%.

Mu United States, United States Henry Port (NG) tsogolo mitengo anasonyeza rebound mchitidwe pambuyo kutsika wonse mu sabata, United States gasi zachilengedwe m'tsogolo mitengo anasonyeza kutsika sabata ino, koma chifukwa cha zotsatira za kusintha mgwirizano, Mitengo yamtsogolo ya NG idakwera.

Kumbali yotumiza kunja, kutumizira kunja kwa US LNG kudatsika sabata ino chifukwa chakusowa kwachangu komanso mantha akuchepa, ndipo zotumiza kunja zatsika.

Kuchokera pamalingaliro aukadaulo, United States Henry Port futures (NG) ndi dziko lotsika kuti liwuke, mtengo wa United States Henry Port futures (NG) mpaka 3.34 US dollars / miliyoni British fever pafupi, KDJ low yatsala pang'ono kuwuka. wa mphanda, MACD pansi zero bottoming, kuchepa kwasiya, United States Henry Port futures (NG) mtengo sabata ino anasonyeza kutsika rebound mchitidwe.

Ku Europe, msika waku Europe ukuchulukirachulukira, malinga ndi data ya European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association ikuwonetsa kuti kuyambira Okutobala 23, kuchuluka kwazinthu zonse ku Europe kunali 1123Twh, ndi gawo la 98.63%, kuwonjezeka kwa 0.05% pa tsiku lapitalo, ndi kuwonjezeka kokhazikika kwa zinthu.

Misika yaku Europe idakhalabe yokwera komanso yosasinthika sabata ino, ndipo momwe zinthu ziliri ku Middle East zidakakamiza Chevron kutseka gawo lake la gasi ku Syria, ndipo msika udapitilira kuchita mantha, koma mitengo yamtsogolo ya TTF inali yokwera komanso yosasinthika chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira pamsika.

Pofika pa Okutobala 24, US Port Henry Natural Gas (HH) ikuyembekezeka kuwona mitengo ya $2.95 / mmBTU, kukwera $0.01 / mmBTU kuchokera kotala yapitayo (10.17), kukwera kwa 0.34%. Mtengo wa malo a Canadian Natural Gas (AECO) unali $1.818 / mmBTU, kukwera $0.1 / mmBTU kuchokera mwezi wapitawo (10.17), kuwonjezeka kwa 5.83%.

Henry Port Natural Gas (HH) akuyembekeza kuti mitengo yamoto ikhale yokhazikika, zogulitsa kunja kwa LNG zafowoka, kufunikira kwakukulu kwa msika wa ogula kunja kwa derali kukhalabe kokhazikika, palibe chithandizo chodziwikiratu, Henry Port Natural gas (HH) akuyembekezeka kukhalabe mitengo yokhazikika. .

Kuyambira pa October 24, Northeast Asia malo kufika China (DES) mtengo unali $17.25 / miliyoni BTU, kukwera $0.875 / miliyoni BTU kuchokera kotala yapita (10.17), kuwonjezeka kwa 5.34%; Mtengo wa malo a TTF unali $14.955 / mmBTU, kukwera $0.898 / mmBTU kuchokera kotala yapitayi (10.17), kuwonjezeka kwa 6.39%.

Mitengo yodziwika bwino ya ogula ikukwera, mantha omwe ogula akukumana nawo tsopano adzaza, malingaliro ongoyerekeza amsika ndi olimba, ogulitsa okwera m'mphepete mwa mitsinje kugulitsa kwamitengo yokwera, zomwe zikuyendetsa mitengo yayikulu ya ogula.

b) Kufufuza

Kwa sabata yatha Oct. 13, malinga ndi US Energy Agency, zida za gasi zaku US zinali 3,626 biliyoni kiyubiki mapazi, kuwonjezeka kwa 97 biliyoni kiyubiki mapazi, kapena 2.8%; Zogulitsa zinali 3,000 cubic feet, kapena 9.0%, kuposa chaka chapitacho. Ndizo 175 biliyoni za cubic feet, kapena 5.1%, kuposa avareji yazaka zisanu.

Kwa sabata lomwe latha pa Okutobala 13, zida zamagesi ku Europe zidayima pa 3,926.271 biliyoni kiyubiki mapazi, mpaka 43.34 biliyoni kiyubiki mapazi, kapena 1.12%, kuyambira sabata yatha, malinga ndi European Gas Infrastructure Association. Zogulitsa zinali 319.287 biliyoni kiyubiki mapazi, kapena 8.85%, apamwamba kuposa chaka chapitacho.

Sabata ino, kuwerengera kwa gasi wachilengedwe ku US kudakwera pang'onopang'ono, chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti obwera kunja azidikirira ndikuwona, kufunikira kwakukulu kwa msika wa ogula kudatsika kwambiri, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zaku US kudakwera. Zogulitsa ku Europe zakula pang'onopang'ono, tsopano zikukwera pafupifupi 98%, ndipo kuchepa kwa kukula kwazinthu kukuyembekezeka kuchepa mtsogolo.

c) Kutumiza kwamadzi ndi kutumiza kunja

A US akuyembekezeka kuitanitsa 0m³ mumayendedwe awa (10.23-10.29); Dziko la United States likuyembekezeka kutumiza kunja 3,900,000 m³, zomwe ndi 4.88% zotsika kuposa kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa 410,00,000 m³ m'mbuyomu.

Pakalipano, kufunikira kofooka pamsika waukulu wa ogula ndi katundu wambiri wachititsa kuti kutsika kwa US LNG kunja.

a) Chidule cha msika

Kuyambira pa October 25, mtengo wotsiriza wa LNG unali 5,268 yuan / tani, mpaka 7% kuyambira sabata yatha, pansi pa 32.45% pachaka; Mtengo wa malo opangira kwambiri unali 4,772 yuan / tani, kukwera 8.53% kuchokera sabata yatha ndi kutsika 27.43% pachaka.

Mitengo yam'mwamba ikuwonetsa kukwera. Chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwa fakitole yamadzi yaku Northwest komanso kukwera kwamitengo yamadzi am'madzi, mitengo yokwera m'mphepete mwa nyanja imakwezedwa ndipo zotumiza zimayendetsedwa ndi kukwera kwamitengo yotumizira.

Pofika pa Okutobala 25, mtengo wapakati wa LNG wolandilidwa mdziko lonse lapansi unali 5208 yuan/tani, kukwera 7.23% kuchokera sabata yatha ndikutsika 28.12% pachaka. Zida zakumtunda zimakhudzidwa ndi mtengo wotumizira, ndikuyendetsa msika kuti ulandire mitengo yamtengo wapatali.

Pofika pa Okutobala 24, kuchuluka konse kwa mbewu zapakhomo za LNG kunali matani 328,300 tsiku lomwelo, kutsika ndi 14.84% kuchokera nthawi yapitayi. Pamene kumtunda kwa mtsinjewo kunkakweza mitengo motsatizana ndi kugulitsa katundu, kugulitsa kwazinthu zoyamba kunali kosavuta, zomwe zinapangitsa kutsika kwa zinthu.

b) Kupereka

Mlungu uno (10.19-10.25) mlingo ntchito 236 zoweta LNG zomera kafukufuku deta zikusonyeza kuti kupanga kwenikweni 742,94 miliyoni lalikulu, Lachitatu ili ntchito mlingo wa 64,6%, khola sabata yatha. Lachitatu lino kuchuluka kwa magwiridwe antchito a 67.64%, kukwera ndi 0.01 peresenti kuyambira sabata yatha. Chiwerengero cha zomera zatsopano zokonzekera ndi kuzimitsa ndi 1, zomwe zimakhala ndi mphamvu zokwana 700,000 cubic metres / tsiku; Chiwerengero cha mafakitale omwe angoyambiranso ndi 0, okhala ndi mphamvu zokwanira 0 miliyoni masikweya mita/tsiku. (Zindikirani: Kuthekera kopanda ntchito kumatanthauzidwa ngati kupanga kwatha zaka zoposa 2; Kuthekera kogwira mtima kumatanthawuza mphamvu ya LNG pambuyo popatula mphamvu zopanda ntchito. Mphamvu zonse zapakhomo za LNG ndi 163.05 miliyoni kiyubic metres / tsiku, ndi kutsekedwa kwa nthawi yaitali 28, 7.29 ma kiyubiki mita miliyoni/tsiku osagwira ntchito ndi 155.76 miliyoni kiyubiki metres/tsiku zogwira ntchito.)

Pankhani yamadzi am'nyanja, okwana 20 onyamula LNG adalandiridwa pamasiteshoni 13 olandirira m'nyumba panthawiyi, kuwonjezeka kwa zombo za 5 pa sabata yapitayi, ndipo kuchuluka kwa doko kunali matani 1,291,300, 37.49% poyerekeza ndi matani 939,200 sabata yatha. Maiko omwe amachokera kumayiko ena ndi Australia, Qatar ndi Malaysia, omwe amafika padoko matani 573,800, matani 322,900 ndi matani 160,700 motsatana. Pamalo aliwonse olandirira, CNOOC Dapeng adalandira zombo za 3, CNPC Caofeidian ndi CNOOC Binhai adalandira zombo za 2 aliyense, ndipo malo ena olandila adalandira 1 sitima iliyonse.

c) Kufuna

Zofunikira zonse zapakhomo za LNG sabata ino (10.18-10.24) zinali matani 721,400, kuchepa kwa matani 53,700, kapena 6.93%, kuyambira sabata yapitayi (10.11-10.17). Zotumiza zapakhomo zapafakitale zidakwana matani 454,200, kuchepa kwa matani 35,800, kapena 7.31%, kuyambira sabata yatha (10.11-10.17). Chifukwa cha malo olandirira ndi makina amadzimadzi akweza mtengo wotumizira, kutsika kwamitengo yotsika mochedwa kutsika, ndikupangitsa kutsika kwa katundu.

Pankhani yamadzi am'nyanja, kuchuluka kwazomwe zidatumizidwa m'malo olandirira kunyumba zinali magalimoto 14,055, kutsika ndi 9.48% kuchokera pamagalimoto 14,055 sabata yatha (10.11-10.17), malo olandirira adakweza mitengo yotumizira, zotumizira kumunsi zinali zolimba, ndipo kuchuluka kwa akasinja komwe kumatumizidwa kudatsika.