2023 yafika kumapeto kwa chaka, ndikuyang'ana mmbuyo chaka chino, msika wamafuta wapadziko lonse lapansi pakuchepetsa kupanga kwa OPEC + ndi kusokonezeka kwapadziko lonse lapansi zitha kufotokozedwa ngati zosayembekezereka, kukwera ndi kutsika.

1. Kuwunika kwamitengo yamitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023

Chaka chino, mafuta amtundu wapadziko lonse (Brent futures) onse adawonetsa kutsika, koma malo otsika mtengo akusintha kwambiri. Pofika pa Okutobala 31, mtengo wapakati wa 2023 Brent crude oil futures unali 82.66 US dollars/barrel, kutsika ndi 16.58% kuchokera pamtengo wapakati chaka chatha. Mchitidwe wa mitengo yamtengo wapatali yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi chaka chino ukuwonetsa mawonekedwe a "malo amphamvu yokoka atsika, omwe kale anali otsika kenako okwera", komanso zovuta zazachuma monga mavuto a mabanki ku Europe ndi United States adawonekera kumbuyo. za chiwongola dzanja kukwera mu theka loyamba la chaka, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ikhale yotsika, mpaka 16%. Pambuyo polowa theka lachiwiri la chaka, chifukwa cha thandizo la mayiko ambiri omwe amapanga mafuta monga kuchepetsa kupanga kwa OPEC +, zoyambira zidayamba kuwonetsa, kuchepa kwa OPEC + kupitilira migolo ya 2.6 miliyoni / tsiku, zofanana ndi 2.7% yamafuta amafuta padziko lonse lapansi. , kuyendetsa mitengo yamafuta kuti ikweze pafupifupi 20%, tsogolo lamafuta a Brent abwereranso kumtunda wapamwamba kuposa $80 / mbiya.

Mtundu wa 2023 Brent ndi $71.84- $96.55 / BBL, pomwe malo okwera kwambiri amapezeka pa Seputembara 27 ndipo otsika kwambiri pa Juni 12. $70- $90 pa mbiya ndiye njira yayikulu yogwiritsira ntchito tsogolo lamafuta a Brent mu 2023. Pofika pa Okutobala 31, WTI ndi Brent crude oil future adatsika ndi $12.66 / mbiya ndi $9.14 / mbiya motsatana kuchokera pakukwera kwa chaka.

Pambuyo pa mwezi wa October, chifukwa cha kuphulika kwa nkhondo ya Palestine-Israel, mitengo ya mafuta padziko lonse inakwera kwambiri pansi pa chiopsezo cha geopolitical premium, koma ndi mkangano umene sunakhudze kutulutsa kwa mayiko akuluakulu omwe amapanga mafuta, kuopsa kwa magetsi kunachepa, ndi OPEC ndi United States. Mayiko adachulukitsa kupanga mafuta osapsa, mitengo yamafuta idatsika nthawi yomweyo. Mwachindunji, mkanganowo udayamba pa Okutobala 7, ndipo kuyambira Okutobala 19, tsogolo lamafuta a Brent adakwera ndi $ 4.23 / mbiya. Pofika pa Okutobala 31, tsogolo lamafuta a Brent linali $87.41 / mbiya, kutsika $4.97 / mbiya kuyambira Okutobala 19, kuchotsa zopindula zonse kuyambira mkangano wa Israeli-Palestine.

Ii. Kuwunika kwazinthu zazikulu zomwe zakhudza msika wamafuta osakanizidwa padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023

Mu 2023, zonse zazikulu zachuma komanso zandale pamitengo yamafuta amafuta zidakwera. Zotsatira za macroeconomic pamafuta osapsa zimakhazikika kwambiri pakufunika. Mu March chaka chino, vuto la mabanki ku Ulaya ndi United States linaphulika, mawu a hawkish a Federal Reserve adayambitsidwa kwambiri mu April, chiopsezo cha ngongole ku United States chinayikidwa pansi pa chiwopsezo mu May, ndi chidwi chachikulu. Chiwongoladzanja chomwe chinayambika chifukwa cha kukwera kwa chiwongoladzanja mu June chinalemetsa chuma, ndipo kufooka ndi malingaliro otsika pazachuma adapondereza mwachindunji mtengo wamafuta padziko lonse kuyambira March mpaka June. Zakhalanso vuto lalikulu lomwe mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi siyingakwere mu theka loyamba la chaka. M'mawu a geopolitical, kuyambika kwa mkangano wa Israeli ndi Palestine pa Okutobala 7, chiwopsezo chapadziko lonse lapansi chinakulanso, ndipo mtengo wamafuta wapadziko lonse lapansi ubwerera kumtunda wapafupi ndi $90 / mbiya mothandizidwa ndi izi, koma ndi msika pendanso zenizeni. Zotsatira za chochitika ichi, nkhawa yokhudzana ndi kuwopsa kwa kupezeka kwachepa, ndipo mitengo yamafuta osakhazikika idatsika.

Pakalipano, ponena za zinthu zazikulu zomwe zimakhudza, zikhoza kufotokozedwa mwachidule monga zotsatirazi: ngati mkangano wa Israeli ndi Palestina udzakhudza zotsatira za opanga mafuta akuluakulu, kuwonjezereka kwa OPEC + kupanga kuchepetsa mpaka kumapeto kwa chaka, kupumula. za chilango chotsutsana ndi Venezuela ndi United States, kukwera kwa mafuta osakanizika a US kufika pamtunda wapamwamba kwambiri m'chaka, kupita patsogolo kwa inflation ku Ulaya ndi United States, ntchito yeniyeni ya zofuna za Asia, kuwonjezeka kwa kupanga kwa Iranian ndi kusintha. mu malingaliro a trader.

Kodi pali malingaliro otani omwe amayambitsa kusakhazikika kwa msika wamafuta osakanizidwa padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023? Pansi pa chipwirikiti cha geopolitical, kodi msika wamafuta amafuta ukupita kuti? Pa Novembara 3, 15:00-15:45, Longzhong Information ikhazikitsa kuwulutsa kwapachaka kwa msika wapachaka mu 2023, komwe kukupatsirani kutanthauzira mwatsatanetsatane mtengo wamafuta, malo otentha kwambiri pachuma, kupereka ndi kufunikira kofunikira komanso mtengo wamtsogolo wamafuta. kulosera, neneratu za msika mu 2024 pasadakhale, ndikuthandizira kukonza mapulani amakampani!