Pamene mafuta osayera atsekedwa kwambiri usiku, mafuta a m'nyumba ndi dizilo adatsegulanso kukwera kwatsopano, masana m'madera ena, gawo lalikulu la mafuta ndi dizilo liri ndi zosintha ziwiri kapena zitatu kuti ziwuke, ndipo dizilo inayamba kukhala ndi mphamvu. njira yochepetsera malonda. Posachedwapa, kufunikira kwa petulo kwathandizidwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwa maulendo a chilimwe ndi mafuta oyendetsa mpweya, koma dizilo yapitirizabe kugwa mvula kumpoto ndi kumwera, ndipo kufunika sikunapite patsogolo kwambiri.

Malinga ndi Longzhong deta monitoring, kuchokera pamwamba pa matebulo awiri, kumayambiriro kwa August chaka chino, mafuta m'nyumba ndi dizilo mitengo ananyamuka kuyambira chiyambi cha July, petulo ananyamuka pakati 45-367 yuan/ton, Shandong ali ndi kuwonjezeka pang'ono; Kuwonjezeka kwa dizilo m'malo osiyanasiyana ndi 713-946 yuan / tani, ndipo kuwonjezeka kumakhala kwakukulu m'malo onse, ndipo kuwonjezeka kwa dizilo ndikokulirapo kuposa mafuta.

Pambuyo pa maulendo angapo akukankhira mmwamba, zifukwa zenizeni ndi izi:

1. Kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta osakanizidwa padziko lonse lapansi

Kuyambira koyambirira kwa Julayi mpaka koyambirira kwa Ogasiti, Saudi Arabia ndi Russia adatulutsanso kuchepetsa kupanga, ndipo kuchuluka kwamafuta ku United States ndi ku Asia kukuyembekezeka kukhala kwabwinoko, komanso kuchepa kwazinthu zamafuta osakanizidwa muzamalonda. United States imathandizidwa ndi uthenga wabwino, ndipo mitengo yamafuta osapaka mafuta padziko lonse lapansi yakwera kwambiri. Pofika pa Ogasiti 3, Brent idatseka $85.14 / BBL, kukwera $10.49 / BBL kapena 14.05% kuyambira koyambirira kwa Julayi.

2. phindu la mafuta am'nyumba ndi dizilo logulitsa kunja ndilokwera

Malinga ndi kuwunika kwa data ku Longzhong, mwachitsanzo, potengera doko la South China, kuyambira pakati mpaka kumapeto kwa June chaka chino, zenera la arbitrage yamafuta am'nyumba ndi dizilo latsegulidwa motsatira. Kuyambira pa Ogasiti 3, phindu la mafuta aku China ku Singapore linali 183 yuan/tani, kukwera 322.48% kuyambira pakati pa Juni; Phindu logulitsa kunja kwa dizilo linali 708 yuan/ton, kukwera ndi 319.08% kuyambira pakati pa Juni.

Ndi kuwonjezeka kwa mafuta apanyumba ndi phindu la kunja kwa dizilo, msika ukuyembekezeka kutumiza katundu wowonjezera kunja, ndi zigawo zina zazikulu mu July kuti zitsegule, kumayambiriro kwa July, zina mwazinthu zazikulu ku East China 92 ​​# mitengo ya mafuta 8380 yuan / tani. , mpaka August 3, mtengo unakwera kufika pa 8700 yuan / tani, kuwonjezeka kwa 320 yuan / tani kapena 3.82%; Mtengo wa dizilo wotumizidwa kunja udakwera kuchoka pa 6,860 yuan/ton kufika pa 7,750 yuan/ton, kukwera ndi 890 yuan/ton kapena 12.97%. Pamene mayunitsi akuluakulu anayamba kusonkhanitsa nthunzi ndi dizilo, ena apakati anatsatiradi, voliyumu imodzi ya mafuta ndi zombo za dizilo inakwera, ndipo ngakhale mtengo wa mafuta osapsa unatsika nthawi zina, koma mtengo wa petulo ndi dizilo unakwera m’malo mwake. kugwa.

3, oyendetsa msika amalabadira kugulitsa katundu

Mpaka pano, Unduna wa Zamalonda ku China wapereka magawo awiri a mafuta oyengedwa bwino chaka chino, okwana matani 27.99 miliyoni. Kuyambira Januware mpaka Juni, kuchuluka kwamafuta oyengedwa kunja kwa China kunali matani 20.3883 miliyoni. Ngati mafuta oyengedwa omwe adatumizidwa kunja akuyang'aniridwa ndi kutsidya kwa nyanja adachotsedwa, kuchuluka kwenikweni kwa kunja kunali matani 20.2729 miliyoni, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zotumizira kunja kunali 72.43%, ndipo panali matani 7.717,100 oti amalizidwe. Malinga ndi zomwe Longzhong adaphunzira pamsika, kuchuluka kwamafuta oyengedwa ku China mu Julayi ndi Ogasiti ndi matani 7.02 miliyoni, ngati izi zitha kutumizidwa kunja, kuchuluka kwamafuta oyengeka ku China mu Januware ndi Ogasiti ndi 97,88%, ndipo kuchuluka kwa magulu awiri kumagwiritsidwa ntchito. Pakadali pano, mafuta am'nyumba ndi dizilo akugulitsa kunja ndi kopindulitsa, gulu lachitatu la magawo otumizira kunja likuyembekezeka kuperekedwa mkati mwa mwezi uno, osaletsa kuthekera kwa mabungwe ena otumiza kunja kuwonjezera mafuta ndi dizilo.

4, mphamvu zosamalira zapakhomo zachepetsedwa, ndipo kupezeka kwawonjezeka, koma kukhudzidwa kwa kupezeka ndi kufunikira pamsika kwachepa.

Mu Ogasiti, China chachikulu choyenga yokonza sikelo anapitiriza kutsika, malinga Longzhong ziwerengero zambiri, mu August yekha Daqing kuyenga ndi mankhwala ndi Lanzhou Petrochemical ziwiri zikuluzikulu zoyenga yokonza, zokhudza mphamvu yokonza kapena matani 700,000, zosakwana July 1.4 matani miliyoni, kuchepa kwa 66%. Malinga ndi kuyerekezera kwa data, kuchuluka kwa mafuta m'mafakitale akuluakulu oyenga mu Ogasiti akuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 61.3%, kukwera ndi 0.75% kuyambira mwezi watha. Chiŵerengerocho chinapitirizabe kubwerera ku 1.02. Zokolola za mafuta a petulo ndi jet zidawonjezeka kwa miyezi isanu yotsatizana, ndipo zokolola za mafuta a dizilo zidatsika kwa miyezi itatu yotsatizana. Choncho, zikuyembekezeredwa kuti anakonza linanena bungwe la nthunzi, dizilo ndi malasha mu refinery waukulu mu August ndi 11.02 miliyoni matani, 11.27 miliyoni matani ndi 5.01 miliyoni matani, motero, amene ndi + 4.39%, -0,68% ndi +7,92%.

M'mwezi wa Ogasiti, mphamvu yokonza zoyenga zodziyimira payokha sinasinthe kwambiri, ndipo ikuyembekezeka kuphatikizira matani 2.27 miliyoni a mphamvu yokonza, kuwonjezeka kwa matani 50,000 kuyambira Julayi, kuwonjezeka kwa 2.25%. Makamaka chifukwa zoyenga zomwe zidasinthidwa mu Julayi, monga Xintai Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, Panjin Haoye ndi zoyenga zina, ndi Lanqiao Petrochemical, Wudi Xinyue, Dalian Jinyuan, Xinhai Shihua, ndi zina zidzatsegulidwa koyambirira kwa Ogasiti, zomwe zidzathetsedwe. mphamvu ya Baolai Petrochemical plant kukonzanso mu August. Pazonse, kupanga mafuta oyengedwa m'nyumba kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka mu Ogasiti, pomwe mafuta amafuta akuwonjezeka mwezi ndi mwezi, ndipo kupanga dizilo sikuyenera kusintha kwambiri.

Pazonse, mitengo yamafuta am'nyumba ndi dizilo ikupitilira kukwera, makamaka chifukwa cha kukwera kwamitengo yamafuta opanda mafuta, phindu lalikulu logulitsa kunja, msika ukuyembekezeka kukulitsa kuchuluka kwa katundu wotumiza kunja, ndipo "golide naini siliva khumi" akubwera, msika uyenera kuchita ntchito zowerengera pasadakhale, ndipo mitengo ya dizilo yoyambirira ndi yotsika, ndipo chidwi chantchito ya msika ndichokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mafuta. Mitengo yamalonda ikuyembekezeka kukwera sabata yamawa, ndipo nkhani zamafuta osakanizidwa zikadali chithandizo champhamvu, zikuyembekezeka kuti ndi gawo lotumiza kunja, msika wamafuta ndi dizilo upitilize kukwera.