Pa Novembara 17, 2020, gawo lapakati la mtengo wosinthira wa RMB pamsika wosinthanitsa ndi mabanki akunja anali: dola imodzi yaku US kupita ku RMB 6.5762, kuwonjezeka kwa mfundo 286 kuyambira tsiku lamalonda lapitalo, kufikira nthawi ya 6.5 yuan. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo yosinthira kumtunda ndi kunyanja ya RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US zonse zakwera kufika pa 6.5 yuan nthawi.

Uthenga uwu sunatumizidwe dzulo chifukwa 6.5 mwina ndi wodutsa. Pansi pa mliriwu, chuma cha China ndi cholimba, ndipo ndizotsimikizika kuti RMB ipitilira kulimbikitsa.

Tumizani ndemanga kuchokera kwa katswiri:

Kodi kusintha kwa RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US kukwera mpaka nthawi ya 6.5?

Mawu a Banja

Zikuyembekezeka kuti kuyamikira kwa RMB sikudzasintha, koma chiwongoladzanja chidzatsika.

Malinga ndi nkhani yomwe idatulutsidwa ndi China Foreign Exchange Trading Center: Pa Novembara 17, gawo lapakati la ndalama za RMB pamsika wosinthanitsa ndi banki yakunja linali 1 dollar yaku US kupita ku RMB 6.5762, kuwonjezeka kwa mfundo 286 kuchokera m'mbuyomu. tsiku lamalonda mpaka nthawi ya 6.5 yuan. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo yosinthira kumtunda ndi kunyanja ya RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US zonse zakwera kufika pa 6.5 yuan nthawi. Kenako, kodi mtengo wa RMB upitilira kukwera?

Kusinthanitsa kwa renminbi kwakwera kufika pa nthawi ya 6.5, ndipo iyenera kukhala chochitika chotheka kuti chikhale chokwera kwambiri pa sitepe yotsatira. Pali zifukwa zinayi.

Choyamba, kuchuluka kwa malonda a RMB kusinthanitsa kwakula pang'onopang'ono, ndipo zifukwa za kulowererapo kwa anthu ndi dipatimenti yoyang'anira kunja kwa banki yapakati zathetsedwa. Kumapeto kwa Okutobala chaka chino, Secretariat of the Foreign Exchange Market Management System idalengeza kuti quotation bank of the central parity rate of the RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku US, kutengera zigamulo zake pazachuma komanso msika. adachitapo kanthu kuti athane ndi "zosokoneza" zomwe zili pamtengo wapakati wa RMB motsutsana ndi dollar yaku America. Cycle factor" imatha kugwiritsidwa ntchito. Izi zikutanthauza kuti gawo lofunikira kwambiri lachitika pakutsatsa kwamitengo yosinthira ya RMB. M'tsogolomu, kuthekera kwa kusinthasintha kwa njira ziwiri pakusintha kwa RMB kudzawonjezeka. Palibe zoletsa zopangira kuyamikira kosalekeza kwa RMB. Izi zimapanga mikhalidwe yabwino yopitilira kuyamikira kwa RMB.

Chachiwiri, China yachotsa zoyipa zomwe zachitika chifukwa cha mliri watsopano wa korona, ndipo kukwera kwake kwachuma sikuli kwachiwiri padziko lonse lapansi. M'malo mwake, kukwera kwachuma kwa mayiko aku Europe ndi America kukucheperachepera, makamaka momwe zinthu zilili ku United States zikadali zovuta, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti dola ipitirirebe. Kuyenda panjira yofooka. Mwachiwonekere, chifukwa cha chithandizo chachuma cha China, chiwongoladzanja cha RMB chidzapitirira kukwera.

Chachitatu, chinthu china chomwe chathandizira kukweza ndalama za renminbi ndi nkhani yosiyirana yomwe inakonzedwa ndi Banki Yaikulu ndi Boma la Assets Supervision and Administration Commission pa Novembara 12 pamutu wa "kuwongolera malonda ndi malonda. ndalama ndi mabizinesi omwe amagwiritsa ntchito renminbi kudutsa malire ”. Zizindikiro zabwino zingapo: Banki yayikulu inanena kuti idapanga limodzi "Chidziwitso Chowonjezera Malamulo a RMB Odutsa malire Othandizira Kukhazikika kwa Malonda Akunja ndi Kugulitsa Zakunja" ndi Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, ndi SASAC. Zolemba zamalamulo zidzaperekedwa posachedwa. Izi zikutanthauza kuti msika wandalama wa dziko langa udzatsegulidwanso kumayiko akunja, ndipo msika wa RMB wakunyanja nawonso utukuka mwamphamvu. Ilimbikitsanso kutsegulidwa kwa msika wandalama wa RMB wakunyanja ndikuwonjezera mphamvu ndi kuya kwa msika wandalama wa RMB wakunyanja. Makamaka, ipitiliza kutsata zisankho zoyendetsedwa ndi msika komanso zodziyimira pawokha, kupitiliza kukhathamiritsa malo ogwiritsira ntchito RMB kudutsa malire, ndikuwongolera magwiridwe antchito a RMB kudutsa malire ndi madera akunyanja. Pakadali pano, motsogozedwa ndi kufunikira kwa msika, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwapadziko lonse kwa renminbi kwapita patsogolo kwambiri. Renminbi ndi ndalama yachiwiri yayikulu kwambiri yaku China yolipira malire. Malipiro a malire ndi malipiro a akaunti ya renminbi oposa gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a malisiti a malire a malire a China ndi ndalama zakunja ndi zakunja. RMB yalowa mubasiketi ya ndalama za SDR ndipo yakhala ndalama yachisanu padziko lonse lapansi yolipirira ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi komanso ndalama zoyendetsera ndalama zakunja.

Chachinayi, komanso chofunikira kwambiri, pa Novembara 15, maiko khumi a ASEAN ndi mayiko 15 kuphatikiza China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, ndi New Zealand adasaina RCEP, zomwe zikuwonetsa kutha kwa mgwirizano waukulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wamalonda waulere. Izi sizidzangolimbikitsa kumangidwa kwa ASEAN Economic Community, komanso zidzawonjezera mphamvu zatsopano pa chitukuko cha dera ndi chitukuko, ndipo zidzakhala injini yofunikira pakukula kwa dziko lonse. Makamaka, China, monga chuma chachiwiri padziko lonse lapansi, mosakayikira chidzakhala maziko a RCEP, yomwe idzalimbikitsa kwambiri kusinthana kwachuma ndi malonda a mayiko a RCEP ndikupindulitsa mayiko omwe akugwira nawo ntchito. Nthawi yomweyo, zimathandiziranso kuti RMB ikhale ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri pakukhazikitsa malonda ndi kulipira mayiko omwe akutenga nawo gawo, zomwe zimabweretsa zabwino zambiri polimbikitsa kuwonjezeka kwa malonda aku China komanso kugulitsa kunja, kukopa mayiko a RCEP kuti akhazikike. China, ndikuwonjezera kufunikira kwa RMB kuchokera kumayiko a RCEP. Zotsatirazi ziperekanso chiwongola dzanja chakupitilira kukwera kwa mtengo wakusinthana kwa RMB.

Mwachidule, ngakhale kuti mtengo wa renminbi walowa m'nthawi ya 6.5, poganizira za chiyembekezo cha malonda ogulitsa kunja ndi kugulitsa kunja ndi ndondomeko za ndondomeko, pali mwayi woyamikira wotsatira wa renminbi. Zimayembekezeredwa kuti chikhalidwe cha kuyamikira kwa renminbi sichidzasintha, koma mlingo wa kuyamikira udzachepa; makamaka mliri wapadziko lonse Potsutsana ndi kuyambiranso kwachiwopsezo komanso kusakhazikika kwachiwopsezo, zikuyembekezeka kuti RMB ikhalebe yokhazikika komanso yamphamvu mothandizidwa ndi zabwino zake zazikulu.