Pa Novembala 17, 2020, kuchuluka kwa ndalama zosinthira ndalama za RMB pamsika wa ndalama zakunja pakati pa mabanki kunali: dola imodzi yaku US mpaka RMB 6.5762, kuwonjezeka kwa ma basis point 286 kuchokera tsiku lapitalo la malonda, kufika pa nthawi ya 6.5 yuan. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo yosinthira ndalama za RMB zakunja ndi zakunja motsutsana ndi dola yaku US yakwera kufika pa 6.5 yuan.

Uthengawu sunatumizidwe dzulo chifukwa mwayi wa 6.5 ndi wodutsa. Pansi pa mliriwu, chuma cha China chili cholimba, ndipo n'zosakayikitsa kuti RMB ipitiliza kulimba.

Tumizani ndemanga kuchokera kwa katswiri:

Kodi ndalama zosinthira ndalama za RMB motsutsana ndi dola yaku US zidzakwera kufika pa nthawi ya 6.5?

Mawu a Banja

Zikuyembekezeka kuti chizolowezi cha kukwera kwa RMB sichidzasintha, koma kuchuluka kwa kukwera kudzatsika.

Malinga ndi nkhani zomwe zatulutsidwa ndi China Foreign Exchange Trading Center: Pa Novembala 17, kuchuluka kwa RMB pamsika wapakati pa mabanki osinthana ndalama zakunja kunali dola imodzi yaku US kufika pa RMB 6.5762, kuwonjezeka kwa ma basis point 286 kuchokera tsiku lapitalo la malonda kufika pa nthawi ya 6.5 yuan. Kuphatikiza apo, mitengo ya RMB yosinthira ndalama zakunja ndi zakunja motsutsana ndi dola yaku US yakwera kufika pa 6.5 yuan. Kenako, kodi RMB idzapitirira kukwera?

Chiwongola dzanja cha renminbi chakwera kufika pa nthawi ya 6.5, ndipo chiyenera kukhala chochitika chachikulu chosungira kukwera kwa mitengo mu gawo lotsatira. Pali zifukwa zinayi.

Choyamba, kuchuluka kwa malonda a RMB exchange rate kwakula pang'onopang'ono, ndipo zinthu zomwe anthu amachita ndi dipatimenti yoyang'anira kunja kwa banki yayikulu zachotsedwa. Kumapeto kwa Okutobala chaka chino, secretariat wa njira yodzilamulira msika wa ndalama zakunja adalengeza kuti banki yowerengera ndalama ya RMB motsutsana ndi dola yaku US, kutengera zigamulo zake pazachuma ndi momwe msika ulili, yatenga njira yothanirana ndi "zotsutsana" mu chitsanzo cha mtengo wapakati wa RMB motsutsana ndi dola yaku US. Cycle factor "yatha kugwiritsidwa ntchito. Izi zikutanthauza kuti sitepe yofunika kwambiri yatengedwa pakugulitsa ndalama za RMB exchange. M'tsogolomu, kuthekera kwa kusinthasintha kwa RMB exchange rate kudzawonjezeka. Palibe zoletsa zopanga kuti RMB ipitirire kukwera. Izi zimapangitsa kuti RMB ipitirire kukwera. Izi zimapangitsa kuti RMB ipitirire kukwera.

Chachiwiri, China yachotsa mavuto omwe amabwera chifukwa cha mliri watsopano wa korona, ndipo chitukuko chake cha zachuma sichinafanane ndi china chilichonse padziko lonse lapansi. M'malo mwake, kuchira kwachuma kwa mayiko aku Europe ndi America kukuchepa, makamaka momwe zinthu zilili ku United States, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti dola ipitirire. Kuyenda mopanda mphamvu. Mwachionekere, chifukwa cha thandizo lalikulu la zachuma la China, chiwongola dzanja cha RMB chipitiliza kukwera.

Chachitatu, chinthu china chomwe chathandiza kwambiri pakukweza ndalama zosinthira ndalama za renminbi ndi msonkhano womwe unakonzedwa pamodzi ndi Banki Yaikulu ndi Komiti Yoyang'anira ndi Kuyang'anira Ndalama za Boma pa Novembala 12 pa mutu wakuti "kuthandiza malonda ndi ndalama ndi makampani omwe amagwiritsa ntchito renminbi kudutsa malire". Zizindikiro zingapo zabwino: Banki yayikulu inanena kuti yapanga limodzi "Chidziwitso Chowonjezera Kukonza Ndondomeko za RMB Zodutsa Malire Kuti Zithandizire Kukhazikika kwa Malonda Akunja ndi Ndalama Zakunja" ndi Komiti Yopanga ndi Kusintha Ndalama, Unduna wa Zamalonda, ndi SASAC. Zikalata za ndondomekozi zidzaperekedwa posachedwa. Izi zikutanthauza kuti msika wazachuma wa dziko langa udzatsegulidwanso kwa anthu akunja, ndipo msika wa RMB wakunja udzakulitsidwanso mwamphamvu. Idzalimbikitsanso kutsegulidwa kwa msika wazachuma wa RMB wakunja ndikuwonjezera mphamvu ndi kuzama kwa msika wazachuma wa RMB wakunja. Makamaka, ipitiliza kutsatira zisankho zamabizinesi zoyendetsedwa ndi msika komanso zodziyimira pawokha, kupitiliza kukonza malo ogwiritsira ntchito mfundo za RMB kudutsa malire, ndikuwonjezera magwiridwe antchito a RMB kudutsa malire ndi kudutsa malire. Pakadali pano, chifukwa cha kufunikira kwa msika, kugwiritsa ntchito renminbi padziko lonse lapansi kwapita patsogolo kwambiri. Renminbi ndi ndalama yachiwiri yayikulu kwambiri yolipira ku China. Ma risiti ndi malipiro a renminbi ochokera kumayiko ena amalipira ndalama zoposa gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a ndalama ndi malipiro a ku China ochokera kumayiko ena m'dziko muno ndi kunja. RMB yalowa nawo mu dengu la ndalama za SDR ndipo yakhala ndalama yachisanu padziko lonse yolipira padziko lonse lapansi komanso ndalama zovomerezeka zosungira ndalama zakunja.

Chachinayi, komanso chofunika kwambiri, pa Novembala 15, mayiko khumi a ASEAN ndi mayiko 15 kuphatikiza China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, ndi New Zealand adasaina mwalamulo RCEP, zomwe zikusonyeza kutha kwa mgwirizano waukulu kwambiri wamalonda padziko lonse lapansi. Izi sizingolimbikitsa kumanga kwa ASEAN Economic Community, komanso zidzawonjezera mphamvu zatsopano pakukula kwa madera ndi chitukuko, ndipo zidzakhala injini yofunika kwambiri pakukula kwa dziko lonse lapansi. Makamaka, China, monga chuma chachiwiri chachikulu padziko lonse lapansi, mosakayikira idzakhala maziko a RCEP, yomwe idzakhala ndi mphamvu yayikulu pakusinthana kwachuma ndi malonda a mayiko a RCEP ndikupindulitsa mayiko omwe akutenga nawo mbali. Nthawi yomweyo, zimathandizanso RMB kuchita gawo lofunika kwambiri pakukonza malonda ndi kulipira mayiko omwe akutenga nawo mbali a RCEP, zomwe zidzabweretsa zabwino zambiri pakulimbikitsa kuwonjezeka kwa malonda onse ochokera kunja ndi kunja kwa China, kukopa mayiko a RCEP kuti agule ndalama ku China, ndikuwonjezera kufunikira kwa RMB kuchokera kumayiko a RCEP. Zotsatirazi zidzathandizanso kukwera kwa RMB.

Mwachidule, ngakhale kuti chiŵerengero cha kusinthana kwa renminbi chafika mu nthawi ya 6.5, poganizira za kuthekera kwa malonda ochokera kunja ndi kunja komanso mfundo zandale, pakadalibe malo oti chiŵerengero cha kusinthana kwa renminbi chiwonjezeke pambuyo pake. Zikuyembekezeka kuti chiŵerengero cha kukwera kwa renminbi sichidzasintha, koma chiŵerengero cha kukwera chidzatsika; makamaka mliri wapadziko lonse lapansi Poganizira za chiopsezo chobwereranso ndi kubwereranso, zikuyembekezeka kuti RMB idzakhalabe ndi chiŵerengero chokhazikika komanso champhamvu mothandizidwa ndi ubwino wake wofunikira.